Non-Fiction

Blunt Instrument: Why Economic Theory Can’t Get Any Better…Why We Need It Anyway

Now Available

Why economic theory—with no track-record of predictive success—is still an indispensable tool for protecting civilized life.

Economic theory has never gotten any better at prediction. Its explanations are always after the fact. The mathematical models economists have devoted themselves to for more than a century can’t be improved to enhance their empirical relevance. But from this research program that never paid off, a very useful tool has emerged—game theory. It’s just what civilized society needs to protect itself from the rapaciousness that condemns all markets to fail. In Blunt Instrument, Alex Rosenberg helps explain to outsiders exactly what they need to make sense of economic theory, and why despite its failures, it’s still indispensable.

Economic theory is something we all should understand because the economy affects us all, and it is economic theorists who shape that economy for good or ill. No less an economist than John Maynard Keynes expressed the point in a memorable quotation: “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” This book draws back the curtain from the math and the graphs that deliver microeconomic and macroeconomic models. It demystifies the formidable-looking equations, explaining the reasoning behind the math so that outsiders can decide on the theory’s importance to their own thinking about the economy. Finally, it shows how game theory—the study of strategic choice—emerged from the outlandish idealizations of economic theory. Most importantly, it illuminates how game theory both mitigates the failures of real-world economies and improves the design of important human institutions.

The Atheist’s Guide to Reality

We can’t avoid the persistent questions about the meaning of life-and the nature of reality. Science is the only thing that can really answer them—all of them.  This bracing and ultimately upbeat book takes physics seriously as the complete description of reality and accepts all its consequences. It shows how physics makes Darwinian natural selection the only way life can emerge, and how that deprives nature of purpose, and human action of meaning, while it exposes conscious illusions such as free will and the self. The science that makes us nonbelievers provides the insight into the real difference between right and wrong, the nature of the mind, even the direction of human history. The Atheist’s Guide to Reality draws powerful implications for the ethical and political issues that roil contemporary life. The result is nice nihilism, a surprisingly sanguine perspective atheists can happily embrace.

How History Gets Things Wrong:

The Neuroscience of our Addiction to Stories

Why we learn the wrong things from narrative history, and how our love for stories is hard-wired. To understand something, you need to know its history. Right? Wrong, says How History Gets Things Wrong. Feeling especially well-informed after reading a book of popular history on the best-seller list? Don’t. Narrative history is always, always wrong. It’s not just incomplete or inaccurate but deeply wrong, as wrong as Ptolemaic astronomy. We no longer believe that the earth is the center of the universe. Why do we still believe in historical narrative? Our attachment to history as a vehicle for understanding has a long Darwinian pedigree and a genetic basis. Our love of stories is hard-wired. Neuroscience reveals that human evolution shaped a tool useful for survival into a defective theory of human nature. Human evolution took the primate’s ability to anticipate the behavior of others, whether predators, prey,  and made it into the theory of mind, a tool we used to get us to the top of the African food chain. Now, however, this hard-wired capacity makes us think we can understand history—what the Kaiser was thinking in 1914, why Hitler declared war on the United States—by uncovering the narratives of what happened and why. In fact, we will only understand history if we don’t make it into a story.